About The Macroprudential View
Why subscribe?
The Macroprudential View offers deep-dive analysis on systemic risk, non-bank financial intermediation, and macroprudential policy — written by Paweł Fiedor, PhD, a senior economist with experience at the Central Bank of Ireland and the European Systemic Risk Board.
The focus is on the parts of the financial system that don’t always make headlines but matter most for stability: investment funds, securitisation vehicles, derivative markets, and the policy frameworks designed to keep them in check. Posts go beyond surface-level commentary to engage with the underlying mechanics, data, and research.
Subscribe if you want rigorous, independent analysis of financial stability topics — written for people who want to understand the system, not just observe it.
What you will find here
Primary-sourced analysis. Where possible, arguments are built from original data — SEC filings, regulatory reports, academic research, central bank publications. When the data is imperfect or incomplete, that is said explicitly. The goal is to be useful, not impressive.
The mechanics behind the headlines. When private credit funds gate redemptions, or money market funds require central bank intervention, or a regulatory framework fails to contain the risk it was designed to address, the surface-level story is rarely the interesting one. The interesting question is always: what is the underlying mechanism, and why did it play out this way?
Europe, seriously. Most financial stability writing defaults to an American perspective. This publication does not. The European regulatory architecture — Solvency II, EMIR, AIFMD, the ESRB recommendations framework — gets the attention it deserves, including when it falls short. The author has worked inside that architecture and knows where the gaps are.
Research made readable. A significant proportion of relevant financial stability research is published in academic journals and working papers that most practitioners never read. This publication translates that research into accessible analysis without sacrificing the rigour that makes it worth translating in the first place.
Honest uncertainty. Financial systems are complex, data is often incomplete, and models are always wrong in some dimension. When something is genuinely uncertain, or when there are reasonable arguments on multiple sides, that is acknowledged rather than papered over with false confidence.
About the author
Paweł Fiedor is a senior economist with experience at the Central Bank of Ireland and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). His research focuses on financial network analysis, systemic risk, non-bank financial intermediation, and macroprudential policy. He holds a PhD in financial economics.
His published academic work includes research on shock amplification in interconnected systems of banks and investment funds, ETF market structure and liquidity linkages, and financial network topology. His research has been published in journals including the Journal of Financial Stability.
He also writes on broader political economy — on the failures of the technocratic consensus, the European competitiveness challenge, and the institutional conditions that make good financial policy possible or impossible.
He is Polish. He lives in Germany & Ireland. He also runs The Sealed Move, a Substack devoted to correspondence chess — the oldest and most analytical form of the game.
Views expressed here are his own and do not represent the positions of any current or former employer.
What this publication is not
It is not investment advice. Nothing here should be read as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. The focus is on system-level dynamics, not individual securities.
It is not a news aggregator. There are excellent services for tracking financial stability headlines. This publication assumes you have access to them and focuses instead on what the headlines mean and why they matter.
It is not a political publication, though it does not pretend that financial regulation is apolitical. When regulatory choices reflect political priorities — or fail to reflect the evidence — that is worth saying.
Frequency and format
Posts appear when there is something worth saying — not on a fixed schedule. Although the author does aim at posting every Monday. The aim is quality over cadence, however. Subscribers should expect one post per week, with occasional shorter notes when breaking developments warrant immediate comment.
All posts are free. If that changes, paid subscribers will always retain access to the full archive.
