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Relocating the seam
The Commission's MISP, the rapporteur's counter-proposal, and where the EU's macroprudential powers for investment funds would sit.
Aug 31
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
1
The survey and the left tail
What 27 years of the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters say about the ex-ante tail information in survey densities — and what they cannot settle.
Aug 24
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
1
Where the euro stablecoin meets its bank
Europe's euro stablecoins keep their reserves at commercial banks — one entirely at its issuer's own parent. What happens to that cash in a bank failure…
Aug 17
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
The doom loop's second geography
What the sovereign-holder data cannot see
Aug 10
•
Paweł Fiedor
2
1
The Unmeasured Quadrant
On the one part of geopolitical risk that financial-stability analysis still leaves blank — and what reading only the other three costs a supervisor.
Aug 3
•
Paweł Fiedor
2
1
July 2026
The Residual Claimant
Macroprudential policy is handed financial stability but not the instruments that move the cycle or backstop the system. On operating downstream of a…
Jul 27
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
Safe, Senior, and Synchronised
The 2027 Treasury repo mandate puts most of the market inside one uniform, non-negotiable margin call. Each firm's own liquidity is priced; the call…
Jul 20
•
Paweł Fiedor
2
2
The Numéraire and the Margin Call
How high equities look depends on the unit of account. What forces the selling usually doesn't.
Jul 13
•
Paweł Fiedor
2
2
What Poland's Growth Was Made Of
The composition of Poland's growth kept it out of the 2009 recession. The same growth left a Swiss-franc book it still hasn't cleared.
Jul 6
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
2
June 2026
The Substrate Problem
A frontier offensive-AI model and a falling estimate of what breaks financial cryptography are correlated, system-wide risks — filed as IT, not…
Jun 29
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
The Benchmark That Binds No One
The Commission found Europe's money market funds resilient and answered with a benchmark no fund is obliged to meet, set where the sector already sits.
Jun 22
•
Paweł Fiedor
1
2
The market that learned to bend
Or: why the machines didn't save us — but something did
Jun 15
•
Paweł Fiedor
2
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