The TMV Index
The Macro Prudential View is a publication about systemic risk — where it builds, how it moves through the financial system, and what the people charged with containing it can actually do about it. The frame is European and macroprudential by default: the non-bank financial sector, the instruments and institutions that supervise it, and the gap between the risks regulators name and the tools they reach for. Each piece translates the underlying research — IMF, ESRB, FSB, BIS, the central banks — into something a practitioner can use, and adds an argument of its own.
If you are new here, the pieces below are grouped by theme rather than by date. Start with whichever cluster is closest to your desk.
Money market funds & short-term funding
Where a liquidity buffer meets a funding market, and whether the regulatory instrument on offer addresses where the risk actually concentrates.
The Alchemy of Liquidity — why “targeted clarifications” will not save Europe’s money market funds.
NBFI & the macroprudential toolkit
What the non-bank macroprudential framework looks like once it leaves the page and gets deployed: the cross-sector contagion it has to contain, and the national experiments that test whether the tools work.
Twelve years of evidence: did Germany’s OEIF macroprudential template work? — the KAGB natural experiment in retail open-ended property funds, 2013 to 2026. Part 1 of 2.
Ireland’s emerging macroprudential framework: two cases, one template — the Central Bank of Ireland’s property-fund and Sterling LDI measures, read against the Eurosystem’s reciprocation proposal. Part 2 of 2.
The Contagion Web — how shocks move between banks and investment funds, and why single-sector models no longer suffice.
Private credit
The fastest-growing corner of the non-bank sector, and the supervisory questions it raises as it scales.
Private credit’s circles of risk — and the wider NBFI architecture behind them — the FSB’s first dedicated private credit report, read as a window onto a wider supervisory gap.
When Everyone Heads for the Exit at Once — the private credit market doing the thing its architects insisted it could not.
Sovereign debt & safe assets
European sovereign debt markets after the central bank steps back, and the persistent shortage of assets the system can treat as safe.
Manufactured safety — why Europe is reopening the safe-asset debate, and the financial engineering a fix would require.
Who Buys When the ECB Doesn’t? — who absorbs sovereign supply once the central bank withdraws, and why the replacement buyers are not equivalent substitutes.
Stress testing methodology
How supervisors model tail risk, and what changes when the exercise shifts from point estimates to regions of vulnerability.
From points to regions — the methodological shift in EU stress testing, and why it took fifteen years.
ETFs & market structure
How passive vehicles reshape the way shocks travel, and why the label “ETF” hides more than it reveals.
The Passive Herding Machine: Why ETFs Are Rewiring EM Contagion — the IMF’s quantification of passive herding in emerging markets, and a real-world episode that showed it working.
The Liquidity Illusion — from the AI-driven ETF boom to the plumbing beneath it, and why all exchange-traded funds are not created equal.
Stablecoins & crypto-financial stability
Where the crypto funding structure meets the sovereign-debt and sanctions architecture, and where the stability questions are real rather than rhetorical.
Stablecoins, Sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz — from regulatory arbitrage to maritime chokepoints, and why the macroprudential case is harder to dismiss.
The Macro Prudential View is written by Paweł Fiedor, PhD. Views are my own.